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Курс доллара: сколько будет стоить «зеленый» при Зеленском

Владимир Зеленский официально вступит в должность Президента уже в июле. Ну а после страну ждут парламентские выборы. Не исключено, что новую коалицию в Раде мы увидим уже в декабре. ГолосUA решил разобраться, как сложный электоральный год отразится на курсе доллара?  

Экспертная среда сходится во мнении, что политическая неопределенность может спровоцировать отток зарубежного капитала, что в свою очередь расшатает ситуацию на валютном рынке. Однако пока тревожных сигналов нет. Вместе с тем есть экономические вызовы, способные разбалансировать ситуацию.

Как рассказал финансовый аналитик Алексей Кущ, в мае Украину ждут крупные выплаты по внешнему долгу. Речь идет 1,5 млрд долларов.

«В этой связи возникнет большой спрос на валюту со стороны государства и НБУ, скорее всего, будет помогать Минфину, продавая валюту напрямую», – заявил он.

Экономист уточнил, что в такие моменты с курсом гривны происходят турбулентные процессы.

«Кроме того, учетная ставка снизилась на 0,5%, и НБУ заявил о смещении монетарной политики. Это может быть воспринято нерезидентами как негативный сигнал. Они начнут постепенно выходить с рынка ОВГЗ, а возможности по привлечению новых кредитов будут достаточно ограничены. Поэтому  все долги придется погашать без транша МВФ», – добавил он.

Экономист Виктор Скаршевский уверен, что внешние выплаты будут производиться не из запасов. Для расчета с зарубежными кредиторами Украина привлечет 1-2 млрд долларов через механизм евробондов. Правда, как признался эксперт, ставка по этим бумагам будет высокой – около 10% годовых.

По словам Скаршевского, сезонное укрепление гривны, которое наблюдалось в период президентских выборов, связано не с политическими циклами, а с сырьевыми циклами на мировом рынке. По данным Государственной службы статистки, в январе-феврале (более свежих данных нет) экспорт товаров по сравнению с аналогичным периодом прошлого года вырос на 7,9% – до 7,96 млрд долларов.

«Сейчас происходит сезонное укрепление гривны, которое также усиливается приходом нерезидентов в гривневые ОВГЗ (объем вложений вырос до 36,3 млрд гривен – Авт.). Сезонному укреплению гривны также способствует хорошая внешнеэкономическая конъюнктура: мировые цены на металл, руду и зерно находятся на высоком уровне. Девальвация же гривны начнется тогда, когда в июле-августе нерезиденты начнут уходить из Украины», – уточнил он.

В укреплении гривны  участвуют и другие факторы. Так, НБУ проводил интервенции на валютном рынке с целью пополнения международных резервов и сглаживания чрезмерных колебаний на рынке. По итогам месяца положительное сальдо операций НБУ на валютном рынке составило почти 300 млн долларов.

Также из-за окончания отопительного сезона сократился импорт энергоресурсов, которые страна закупает в долларах. Более того, природный газ начал дешеветь на международных биржах и это косвенно также играет на укрепление гривны. Кроме того, аграрии для обеспечения посевной кампании использовали свои валютные запасы, создав дополнительное долларовое предложение на рынке.

Кроме того, на мировых финансовых рынках ситуация для стран с развающимися рынками, за исключением последней декады месяца оставалась благоприятной благодаря смягчению монетарной политики ведущими центральными банками.

Продолжают помогать стране и трудовые мигранты. В этом году они могут ввести в страну до 14 млрд долларов.

«Существенных колебаний на валютном рынке не будет. То есть, курс будет находиться на отметке 27-27,5 грн/долл. Летом возможна традиционная ревальвация. Политическая жизнь стабильная, протестов не будет, а значит, не стоит ожидать потрясений на валютном рынке», – говорит экономист Александр Охрименко.

Что касается второй половины года, то тут возможны негативные колебания. Во-первых, не стоит забывать, что в сентябре Украина будет опять проходит пик по внешним выплатам. Около 1,5 млрд долларов нужно будет вернуть кредиторам. Скорее всего, Украина пойдет по пути перекредитования, однако не стоит исключать использования золотовалютных резервов, что пошатнет устойчивость гривны.

Во-вторых, неизвестно, как будут развиваться отношения с МВФ, сотрудничество с которым открывает доступ к ресурсам других международных институций, как-то Еврокомиссия, Всемирный Банк, ЕИБ, Минфин США и проч.

Эксперты предполагают, что текущая программа расширенного финансирования (EFF) может быть пересмотрена.

«Как показывает практика, под новых президентов в МВФ дают не только транши, но и пишут программы. Например, как это было с  Виктором Януковичем, когда после его избрания сразу же была предоставлена новая программа. Украине выделили несколько миллиардов долларов.  На данный момент, все маяки, которые требовали в МВФ от Украины, кроме одного, были выполнены. Думаю, что транш Зеленскому дадут. В МВФ скажут, что в Украине произошло разделение налоговой службы и таможни. Третий же транша МВФ предоставит в конце 2019 года»,- комментирует Скаршевский.

Напомним, ревизоры МВФ приедут в Украину в мае-июне и только после этого последует решение о втором транше в 1,3 млрд долларов. Традиционно получение средств МВФ дает позитивный сигнал, как зарубежным инвесторам, так и валютному рынку.

Аналитики инвестиционного банка Morgan Stanley также убеждены, что второй транш поступит летом, но не исключают, что в 2020 году финансирование по линии МВФ может прекратиться.

Согласно их прогнозу, к концу текущего года гривна ослабится до 30,5 грн/долл. В свою очередь в МВФ говорят о курсе в 28,6 грн/долл., а в Кабмине – 29,4 грн/долл.

В то же время в НБУ подготовили три сценария по курсу. Первый, базовый, подразумевает доллар по 28,7 гривны к концу года. Второй, допускающий отсутствие поддержки МВФ, фиксирует курс на уровне 33,7 грн/долл. Третий, подразумевающий падение мировых цен и отсутствие траншей МВФ, определяет курс в 39,4 грн/долл.

Источник: golos

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