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На старте “Большой гонки”

С чем кандидаты на пост Президента Украины выходят на старт избирательной кампании. Рейтинги основных “претендентов на булаву”.

Фонд «Украинская политика» совместно с исследовательской группой Института маркетинга и консалтинга опубликовали результаты очередного исследования общественного мнения украинцев в контексте электорального цикла 2019 года. Опрошено 5312 респондентов в 17 областных центрах, 5 крупных городах, 12 малых городах, 20 поселках и 26 селах (погрешность +/-2,5%).

ДИСПОЗИЦИЯ

Лидером президентской гонки по-прежнему остается Юлия Тимошенко, но эта стабильность уже напоминает стагнацию и вынуждает искать новые идеи и смыслы для мобилизации электората с началом официальной кампании.

На втором месте утвердился Пётр Порошенко. Томособесие таки дало свои плоды, пусть и гораздо более скромные, чем рассчитывали на Банковой. Впрочем, эффект этот вероятное всего закончится с завершением январских праздников.

Самой большой неожиданностью для меня стало третье место Олега Ляшко. Судя по динамике рейтингов, главный радикал привлёк избирателей, на которые рассчитывала Тимошенко, удачно вписавшись в формируемый Банковой информационный мейнстрим.

Владимир Зеленский не сумел мощно стратовать, заявив о своих президентских амбициях хоть и скандально, но невнятно. Возможно, избиратели пока просто не поняли, что в этот раз он таки шутит по-серьёзному.

Подтвердил своё реноме «первого непроходного» Анатолий Гриценко. Со второго места он скатился на пятое, фактически перейдя во второй эшелон «претендентов на булаву». Очередная имитация «единения здоровых сил» в его исполнении избирателей явно не впечатлила.

На шестое место вышел Александр Вилкул, чисто символически опередив своего главного на сегодня конкурента – Юрия Бойко. Очевидно, к Вилкулу начали перетекать голоса сторонников «Оппозиционного блока», которые раньше ориентировались на Бойко как главного фронтмена ОБ с момента основания партии.

Восьмое место Евгения Мураева не позволяет ему бороться за президентский пост, но, учитывая активность его сторонников, оставляет хорошие шансы на парламентский успех собственного партийного проекта.

Святослав Вакарчук, так и не дождавшись инициативной поддержки широких народных масс, растерял большую часть своего президентского рейтинга.

Для Александра Шевченко попадание в десятку кандидатов в президенты уже успех. В случае эффективного продолжения его кампании, УКРОП вполне можно иметь в парламенте следующего созыва собственную фракцию.

ВЫВОДЫ

  1. Судьба второго тура, тем более общего исхода выборов ещё не решена и очень далека от этого. Впервые в электоральной истории Украины на президентских выборах нет понятной двойки лидеров.
  2. В «сине-белом», «русском» или «юго-восточном» сегменте украинского политикума наблюдается всё более очевидный запрос на новые лица, что демонстрируют рейтинги Зеленского, Вилкула, Мураева. В то же время в «оранжевом» или «прозападном» сегменте популярностью пользуются лица давно знакомые.
  3. При такой динамике популярности кандидатов результаты президентских выборов будут решаться «в поле» и зависеть от способности политических сил физически добраться своего избирателя, мобилизировать его в день выборов и защитить полученные голоса в избирательных комиссиях

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