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По ком пробьет антикоррупционный колокол в год выборов?

Прошедшую неделю правоохранительные органы активизировались в отчетности о своих успехах в антикоррупционных расследованиях. Директор НАБУ Артем Сытник сообщил, что завершено досудебное расследование по делу нардепа-беглеца Александра Онищенко. По нему же проходил и экс-глава ГФС(Государственная фискальная служба) Роман Насиров. «Дело закончено, и в ближайшие дни обвинительный акт будет направлен в суд», — заявил он6 февраля на брифинге, посвященном итогам работы своего ведомства за 2018 год. В САП сообщили, что обнаружили у того же Насирова, тайный счет в Великобритании на сумму около 300 тыс. долл. Якобы этот счет у бывшего главного фискала, а ныне кандидата в президенты, Романа Насирова уже 3 года, но он его не задекларировал. Происхождение денег неизвестно. Внимание правоохранителей снова обращено к деятельности кандидата в президенты Анатолия Гриценко на посту главы Минобороны. На заседании временной следственной комиссии Верховной Рады по изучению хищений в ВСУ за последние 15 лет глава парламентского комитета по нацбезопасности и обороне Сергей Пашинский назвал Гриценко «чемпионом по разбазариванию нашей армии».Присутствовавший на заседании генпрокурор Юрий Луценко полностью соглашался со сказанным. Realist разбирался, не превратится ли антикоррупционная деятельность в предвыборную технологию президентской гонки, или, может, следует ожидать не только громких заявлений, но и задержаний или арестов?

Рыбалка от телеканала «Дискавери»

Последние соцопросы показывают, что 45% украинцев считают, что коррупция в госорганах — одна из самых больших проблем для Украины. Для 16% граждан при выборе кандидата в президенты решающим станет тот фактор, насколько он способен бороться с коррупцией. И все 44 зарегистрированные кандидаты в президенты задекларировали свою готовность к антикоррупционной реформе. А «первый радикал страны» Олег Ляшко даже высказался за возвращение смертной казни для топ-коррупционеров.

Борьба с коррупцией почти у всех кандидатов в президенты прописана в топ-темах предвыборных программ

Борьба с коррупцией у большинства кандидатов в президенты прописана в топ-темах предвыборных программ — даже тех, кто, по мнению общества (исходя из соцопросов) возглавляет эту коррупцию.

«Антикоррупционные органы будут вовлечены в предвыборную гонку: участятся брифинги, пресс-конференции Луценко, Сытника, Холодницкого (глава САП Назар Холодницкий), Трубы (директор ГБР Роман Труба), — комментирует руководитель аналитического центра „Третий сектор“ Андрей Золотарев, — Не исключено, что до конца апреля (второго тура президентских выборов) будут открыты негромкие дела для убедительности и даже сакральные жертвы из „крупной рыбы“, к примеру, тот же Насиров».

 При этом, никто из публично обличенных топ-коррупционеров не понесет наказания. «У нас борьба с коррупцией – это рыбалка на телеканале «Дискавери»: поймали, показали, отпустили», – говорит Андрей Золотарев.

Под каток такой предвыборной антикоррупционной активности могут попасть как представители власти, так и ее оппозиционные политики. «Есть информация, что против Тимошенко могут использовать показания Лазаренко. Но это — дела 90-х. Они в силу своей давности уже не интересны абсолютному большинству избирателей. Сейчас интересны дела с актуальными фамилиями: тот же Кононенко, Семочко (первый заместитель руководителя Службы внешней разведки)», — заявил глава Центра прикладных политических исследований «Пента» Владимир Фесенко.

А вот что касается обвинений в адрес экс-министра обороны Анатолия Гриценко, по мнению Фесенко, то перспективы развития в судебное слушание и наказание у них нет никакой, равно как и в качестве предвыборной технологии против кандидата в президенты. «Министр обороны не принимает решение единолично. Продажа, „списание“ государственного имущества утверждаются Кабмином и при согласии президента (в том случае президента Виктора Ющенко). Обвинения не больше, чем пиар-кампания», — говорит Фесенко. Не особо повлияет такой черный пиар против Гриценко и на его поддержку как кандидата в президенты (и без того не особо высокую)”, — считает Фесенко. И добавляет, что кардинально изменить ход президентской гонки могла бы только попытка антикоррупционных органов — НАБУ и САП — начать расследование в отношении президента Петра Порошенко по делу«Роттердам+».

Ранее Realist писал, что глава САП Назар Холодницкий обещал ревизию уголовных производств по «Роттердам+» и «ПриватБанку» до конца первой декады февраля. Время истекло. Холодницкий молчит.

В НАПК заверяют, что декларации кандидатов в президенты уже проверены и теперь приступят к проверке источников финансирования их предвыборных кампаний (глава НАПК Александр Мангул, назначен в марте 2018 г.)

Но директор Института глобальных стратегий Вадима Карасев убежден, чтоантикоррупционные органы будут действовать в интересах президента Порошенко в период избирательной кампании. Но это будут не новые разоблачения и тем более не громкие задержания, а больше — контрпропаганда на обвинения в его адрес со стороны политических конкурентов. «Сейчас в адрес Порошенко будет звучать много критики, а почему коррупционеры до сих пор не в тюрьме? НАБУ и САП должны будут отбить эти нападения. Холодницкий и Сытник будут пытаться демонстрировать обществу, как много сделали их ведомства, но во всем виноваты политики. Дескать, десятки, сотни дел расследованы, но они не продвигаются, потому что депутаты медлили с запуском Антикоррупционного суда, а как только заработает этот суд, и эффект будет», — комментирует Realist’y Карасев.

Когда служба в дружбу

Негласно влияние на правоохранительные органы в Украине поделено между двумя крупнейшими партиями власти — БПП и «Народный фронт». Банковой якобы подконтрольны НАПК (Нацагентство по противодействию коррупции), НАБУ и ГПУ, а «фронтовикам» — МВД и САП.

А последнее из новосозданных органов — Госбюро расследований (ГБР), которое так и не может заработать полноценно из-за скандалов вокруг кадровых назначений, по информации Realist‘а, лавирует между интересами администрации президента и руководством «Народного фронта».

Тем не менее, главы антикоррупционных ведомств всячески пытаются «саботировать» указания свих политических покровителей, чем частично объясняется их пассивность в завершении уголовных расследований в отношении топ-коррупционеров — по крайней мере, на период избирательного цикла 2019 года. «Насколько я понимаю, к главным фаворитам выборов у Сытника очень сдержанное отношение», — заявил Realist’у Владимир Фесенко.

в НАПК тоже открещиваются от подыгрывания какому-либо кандидату. «Мы не будем(занимать чью-то позицию)так как есть абсолютная вероятность в том, что все оппоненты или их штабы общаются и собирают информацию, а нам такой „слив“ не нужен. В агентстве много народа, и „утечка“ информации про лобби кого-то отдельного — гарантирована. Тем более, декларации кандидатов уже проверены, далее будет техническая работа по проверке законности взносов на накопительные счета кандидатов для финансирования своей предвыборной кампании, а также использование бюджетных денег», — сказал на правах анонимности Realist’у один из сотрудников НАПК.

По словам источника Realist’а в органах прокуратуры, глава САП Назар Холодницкий тоже постарается занять выжидательную позицию. «Назар видит себя осенью в парламенте. А для этого нужно попасть в проходную часть избирательного списка одной из проходных партий. Какая политическая сила даст гарантии проходимости, к той и будет лояльна САП», — заверил наш собеседник.

Обреченные на роль марионеток

О политизированности и вовлеченности в избирательный процесс антикоррупционных органов говорят не только политологи, но и общественные активисты, и бывшие сотрудники силовых ведомств, принимавшие участие в разработке архитектуры украинских антикоррупционных органов.

По их мнению, НАБУ, САП, НАПК и ГБР были обречены на роль политических марионеток для власти и различных групп влияния в украинской политической системе.

Антикоррупционные органы в украинских реалиях были обречены попасть под политическое давление (слева направо: глава САП Назар Холодницкий, директор НАБУ Артем Сытник)

«В начале создания всех этих органов в законодательстве закладывались механизмы, которые бы сделали невозможным их политизацию. Но если власть заинтересована в подконтрольности правоохранительных структур, то в украинских реалиях политики найдут способ сделать их подконтрольными, что и случилось в той или иной степени», — заявил экс-замгенпрокурора Виталий Касько.

В подтверждение своих слов Касько приводит пример с отставкой члена НАПК Руслана Рябошапки. Чиновник в июне 2017 года написал заявление на увольнение, так как, по его мнению, работа НАПК была заблокирована именно из-за политического давления.

«НАБУ, НАПК и ГБР стали политизированы еще с момента проведения конкурсов на руководящие должности. Когда в комиссиях преобладают политики или зависимые от них чиновники, не стоит ожидать честного конкурса. А руководитель САП сам выбрал тактику дискредитации органа в обмен на сохранение своей должности», – заявил Realist’у исполнительный директор Transparency International Украина Ярослав Юрчишин.

По его мнению, в случае с НАПК, ГБР и НАБУ ситуацию можно было бы исправить, изменив процедуры конкурсного отбора сотрудников. С этим мнением согласен и Виталий Касько: «Если бы в состав НАПК направить представителей международных организаций, то агентство будет работать на этой же правовой базе «аж дым пойдет».

Другие эксперты считают, что стратегическая ошибка антикоррупционных органов в том, что они начали работать сразу с топ-коррупционеров и к тому же влиятельных политиков, либо с топ-чиновников, за которым такие политики стоят.

Хотя международные партнеры, которые продвигали создание НАПК, НАБУ и САП в Украине, советовали оттачивать мастерство сначала на региональном уровне, а потом уже браться за коррупционеров национального масштаба.

«Это позволило бы: первое — создать репутацию эффективных органов, второе — собрать и оформить такую доказательственную базу, к которой бы не придрался ни один, даже самый маститый, адвокат», — заявил политический эксперт неправительственного аналитического центра Democracy House Анатолий Октисюк.

Еще одна предпосылка изначальной политизированности и неэффективности работы антикоррупционных органов — дублирование функций со старыми правоохранительными органами — СБУ и ГПУ. Это приводит к конфликтам и, главное, к утечке информации. «Нужно было действовать по принципу создания патрульной полиции, то есть ликвидировать старые органы, а потом запускать новые или же просто реформировать старые органы. Тогда бы, возможно, работа пошла», — считает Октисюк.

Когда у топ-коррупционеров влияние на парламент, правительство и суды, посадить их практически невозможно (на фото экс-нардеп Николай Мартыненко, которому САП и НАБУ инкриминируют ущерб государству на 17,28 млн долл.)

А так… на сегодняшний день работа антикоррупционных органов дискредитирована. По оценкам отдельных экспертов НАБУ и САП доверяют около 5% украинцев. Смогут ли восстать из пепла антикоррупционные органы, на которые так возлагали надежды, и на которые из госбюджета в 2019 году выделят около 3 млрд долл., во многом зависит от исхода президентской кампании.

Политическая воля следующего — шестого — президента Украины может дать зеленый свет результативной борьбе с коррупцией или напротив еще больше погрузить антикоррупционные органы в болото политических интриг. В то же время, во многом от антикоррупционных органов зависит, закроется ли когда-либо в Украине дверь к власти для лиц, обремененных солидным коррупционным кейсом.

Источник: realist.online

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