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Сирійський апокаліпсис: чи готові США і Росія до прямого протистояння?

Конфлікт у Сирії, де зіштовхнулися дві найбільші держави світу – США і Росія, може стати одним з найгостріших і найнебезпечніших з часів холодної війни. Нинішнє протистояння за напруженістю нагадує Карибську кризу, яка мало не призвела до Третьої світової війни.

Про події в Сирії, і чим це загрожує світу, – в матеріалі сайту “24”.

Причини загострення

Збройний конфлікт у Сирії між проурядовими силами режиму Башара Асада і опозицією триває сьомий рік. Як відомо, США засуджують Асада за його диктаторські методи управління. Путін усіляко підтримує сирійського диктатора. Втім, за президентства Барака Обами Вашингтон не йшов на пряме втручання в конфлікт у Сирії. Між США і Росією були досягнуті домовленості про спільну боротьбу з так званою “Ісламською державою”, яка базується, в тому числі, на території Сирії.

Ситуація змінилася після приходу до влади Дональда Трампа. Хоча з Росією продовжували діяти домовленості про спільну боротьбу з тероризмом, Путін використав зміну влади в США для того, щоб посилити Асада, надавши йому підтримку збройних сил РФ. Це призвело до хімічних атак мирного населення навесні 2017 року військами Асада – в провінції Ідліб, жертвами яких стали понад 70 людей.

Сирія, Башар Асад Путін
В США зрозуміли, що Путін бореться не з тероризмом, а підтримує знищення Асадом сирійців

Відповідь Трампа не забарилася. Збройні сили США випустили 50 крилатих ракет “Томагавк” по сирійських урядових цілях. Росія, зрозуміло, засудила дії США, але не більше. Путін все ж сподівався на перезапуск відносин з Вашингтоном. Зокрема, на пом’якшення санкцій, визнання анексії Криму і врегулювання ситуації на Донбасі на умовах Росії. Втім, Білий дім не тільки не пішов на поступки, а влітку 2017 року ухвалив закон про розширення санкцій проти Росії. Причиною стало втручання РФ у вибори президента США в 2016 році.

Путін, у якого є тільки одна зброя для тиску на Захід – сила, став ще більше підтримувати у військовому плані Асада. У Вашингтоні вже чітко побачили, що мета Путіна – не боротьба з ІДІЛ, а з сирійською опозицію на користь Асада.

Хімічна атака Асадом цивільного населення в східній Гуті і атака 8 квітня в місті Дума, внаслідок чого за різними даними загинуло понад 100 осіб, була здійснена однозначно не без відома Москви. Хоча, зрозуміло, що і Асад, і Кремль заперечують взагалі саму атаку. Міністр закордонних справ РФ Лавров назвав кадри, зняті сирійською опозицією, постановочними. Росія відверто заблокувала резолюцію Радбезу ООН щодо слідчої комісії стосовно застосування хімічної зброї. Трамп заявив про можливість нанесення по позиціях Башара Асада відповідних ударів.

Вочевидь, останньою крапкою для Білого дому стала заява російського посла Олександра Засипкіна про те, що “будь-які американські ракети, випущені по Сирії, будуть збиті”. Трамп в емоційному твіті закликав Росію “готуватись” і попередив, що американські ракети будуть новими і розумними.

Бомбардування США показові і символічні

Попри заяви Трампа, в експертного середовища не було впевненості у тому, що президент США разом з союзниками – Великобританією і Францією – почне бомбардувати Сирію. Питання не в тому, що США могли злякатися Росію. Як зазначає військовий експерт Олег Жданов, порівнювати тактико-технічні характеристики озброєння країн-членів НАТО і РФ некоректно. Між ними велика прірва. Однак, на переконання військового, не це є головною причиною того, що США не підуть на пряме військове протистояння з РФ.

Американські ракети легко подолають систему російської ППО і потраплять у ціль. В тому числі, в саму російську ППО. А це буде катастрофою для РФ. Військова поразка, нехай і незначна, може призвести до політичної поразки російської влади всередині країни і до величезних іміджевих втрат. І образ зовнішнього ворога в Росії просто зникне. Це може стати причиною розпаду РФ. США хочуть, щоб Росія змінила політичний курс, а не розвалилася,
– говорить експерт.

Хоча можливості ракетних ударів з боку США і союзників Жданов не виключив.

“Сирійський криза, як у театрі. Якщо на стіні висить рушниця, то вона має вистрілити. Рушницю вже повісили. Обмін ударами допустимий. Хоча питання збройного протистояння між США і Росією в Сирії більше політичне, ніж військове”, – вважає Жданов.

Натомість політолог Василь Мокан зазначив: є певні ознаки того, що загострення в Сирії може перерости в реальні військові дії. Хоча, вочевидь, ці ризики усвідомлюють і в США, і в Росії, тому шукатимуть компроміси.

Якщо справді ракету США зіб’є Росія, як вона цим пригрозила, то тоді ми можемо отримати в Сирії найгарячішу точку в світі. В пряме протистояння фактично вступлять найбільш потужні держави. Але ці ризики усвідомлюють і в США, і в Росії. Тому гра словами, м’язами і дипломатією більш пріоритетна, ніж військові дії,
– вважає Мокан.

Сирія, США, ракетні удари
США і союзники нанесли удари по науково-дослідницьких інститутах. Жертв немає

Власне, ракетний удар США, Великобританії і Франції по трьох цілях в Сирії в ніч на 14 квітня підтвердив той факт, що в плани Вашингтона не входить військове протистояння з Москвою. За словами голови правління Центру прикладних політичних досліджень “Пента” Володимира Фесенка, атака була ефективною, але обмеженою і помірною. Більше показовою і символічною. Не для того, щоб завдати відчутного військового удару або зруйнувати багато об’єктів (під час бомбардувань ніхто не загинув – “24”).

США треба було показати, що будь-яке порушення режимом Асада і Росією гуманітарного плану отримає відповідь. Але цим продемонстрували: якщо Асад і далі продовжить бомбити мирне населення, то наступна атака буде більш серйозною. Особливих стратегічних цілей не було. США уникали атак російських об’єктів і будь-якого провокування конфлікту з РФ. І Росія відвела своїх військових від місць передбачуваної атаки. Обидві сторони уникали будь-яких дій, які могли б спровокувати прямий військовий конфлікт,
– наголосив Фесенко.

Санкції болючіші “Томагавків”?

На думку експертів, відчутнішими для Росії будуть санкції, які США і Захід поступово розширюють. Після того, як 6 квітня США запровадили персональні санкції проти 38 російських олігархів і компаній, лише за кілька днів найбагатші люди РФ втратили мільярди доларів. А рубль впав на 10%. Більше всього постраждав наближений до Путіна алюмінієвий магнат Олег Дерипаска.

Як зазначає економічний експерт Сергій Фурса, компанія олігарха “Русал” не матиме можливості отримувати гроші від клієнтів. Всі платежі припинені. Відоме агентство Bloomberg перестало показувати котирування цінних паперів компанії. “Русал” не просто токсична, а радіоактивна. Як говорить фахівець, те, що відбувається зараз із компанією Русал, уже було в світі. Такі санкції стосувалися Ірану. І обходити їх, наголошує він, – дуже дорого коштує (BNP Paribas заплатив, наприклад, близько 9 млрд доларів).

США, Путін, санкції
Трамп продовжить посилювати санкції проти Росії через події в Сирії

Але США на цьому вирішили не зупинятися і готують нові санкції проти Росії через підтримку сирійського президента Башара Асада. Великобританія також планує запровадити нові санкції проти російських олігархів. При цьому у Лондоні розглядають різні варіанти дії щодо “розміщених в королівстві “незаконних фінансів” російських бізнесменів і чиновників”. Серед них – і замороження державних рахунків у Великобританії та “корумпованих еліт” із Росії.

Як говорить Володимир Фесенко, США вводять санкції проти Росії за планом. І після першої атаки по російських олігархах буде друга, а потім третя. На його переконання, санкції – більш чуттєвий інструмент.

Росія злякалася. До третьої світової не дійде

Примітно, що Росія, крім того, що на спеціально скликаному засіданні Радбезу ООН щодо Сирії назвала дії США і союзників хуліганськими, далі слів поки не йде. Путін звинуватив США у посиленні гуманітарної катастрофи в Сирії і заявив, що повторення ударів по Сирії силами західної коаліції “неминуче призведе до хаосу у міжнародних відносинах”.

Олег Жданов переконаний: Росія не збирається щодо США заходити далі слів, тому що боїться.

Росія боїться, що США можуть вдарити бо її базах у Сирії. Не випадково РФ вивела свої кораблі з бази Тартус у Середземне море – через можливий ракетний удар США, щоб виключити можливість втрат зі свого боку. А Башар Асад перегнав свої літаки на російську базу в Хмеймім. Він розуміє, що ймовірність удару США по російській базі мінімальна,
– зазначає Жданов.

Як наголошує фахівець, США і Великобританія сильно налякали Росію, а також близький до неї Іран і самого Асада. Тому що хочуть, аби в Росії відбулися не просто політичні зміни, а закрити питання з Іраном і відірвати його повністю від Москви. Таким чином позбавити Росію будь-якої опори на Близькому Сході.

Путін, Трамп
Чи такий страшний Путін, як його малюють?

Співголова ГІ “Права справа” Дмитро Снєгирьов вважає, що Путін свідомо провокує Трампа загостренням ситуації в Сирії, але не стане проходити точку неповернення.

Президент РФ нав’язав сценарій поведінки США, але Кремль лякатиме до певної межі. До третьої світової війни не дійде. В Росії теж прагматики. Путін намагається створити біполярний світ – поділити його на зони впливу. Крім того, він іде на ескалацію напруженості, щоб мобілізувати російське суспільство, відволікти населення від внутрішніх економічних проблем, знову створивши образ зовнішнього ворога,
– зауважує Снєгирьов.

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