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Запад и Россия на президентских выборах в Украине

Чужие интересы снова будут определять судьбу украинцев?

Еще с президентских выборов 2004 года кандидатов у нас традиционно делят на «прозападных» и «пророссийских». До сих пор популярность первых не снизилась даже после пяти лет провальных «реформ» под диктовку западных советников, а позиции вторых остались достаточно сильными после всех событий 2014-го. Сейчас Запад и Россия не участвуют в украинских выборах напрямую, не поддерживают открыто тех или иных политиков. Даже их интересы в Украине претерпели существенное изменение. И всё же эти выборы важны для них не меньше, чем все предыдущие, и ставки по-прежнему высоки.

Это бойкот?

Двойные стандарты в политике и морали присущи всем странам мира, и Запад тут не исключение: он врет и лицемерит не меньше, чем Россия, КНДР или Саудовская Аравия. Там даже свободу умудрились извратить и превратить в тиранию, преследующую инакомыслящих как «врагов свободы». Так что не стоит апеллировать к кому-то из них как к светочу истины и непредвзятой объективности. Ну а если это кто-то всё же делает, то он либо глупец, либо «их сукин сын», которого в любом случае поддержат его иностранные «партнеры».

Но вот чудеса: если на выборах 2004-го, 2010-го и даже 2014-го годов ведущие кандидаты только и делали что мотались в Брюссель, Вашингтон и Москву (на худой конец – в их посольства в Киеве), где «ручкались» с тамошними президентами и премьерами, то выборы-2019 проходят в атмосфере такой себе политической изоляции Украины. Ну, хорошо, по известным причинам, «пророссийские» кандидаты (Бойко, Вилкул) не торопятся раньше времени отправиться на аудиенцию в Кремль. Однако «прозападные» Порошенко, Тимошенко и Гриценко наверняка хотели бы получить публичную поддержку ЕС и США. Ну, или хотя бы создать её видимость: поехать в Брюссель и Вашингтон, толкнуть речь с трибуны, сфотографироваться с кем-то важным, вернуться домой и заявить о «потужной підтримке».

Но даже Петр Алексеевич последние пару месяцев резко сократил график своих визитов на Запад. Как будто ему, как и другим кандидатам, настойчиво посоветовали не появляться там до окончания выборов. Мол, нечего тут на нашем фоне пиариться! Более того, на нынешних выборах фактически нет четкого «ставленника» Запада: ни официального (как Ющенко в 2004-м), ни полуофициального (как Тимошенко и Порошенко в 2010 и 2014 годах). Почему? Подобного «игнорирования» украинских выборов не было с 90-х годов, и это сильно озадачивает.

Пока Америкой руководил дуэт Обамы-Клинтон, казалось, что их вполне устраивает Петр Порошенко, усердно наращивавший антироссийскую риторику. Затем, после того как у туалета Белого Дома встретились Дональд Трамп и Юлия Тимошенко, все решили что она стала новой фавориткой США. Но, как видим, она интересует Трампа не больше, чем его бывшие фотомодели. Ближе к выборам не оправдались прогнозы относительно Анатолия Гриценко и Святослава Вакарчука. Первый снова остался «вспомогательным» кандидатом, имеющим слабую и очень неофициальную поддержку не Белого Дома, а каких-то вспомогательных структур Пентагона. Второй должен был стать кандидатом от Сороса, но он сам отказался от участия в выборах – хотя, как показывает успех другого кандидата-артиста, он имел шансы. Ну, в общем, это и все кандидаты, которых можно условно назвать «проамериканскими».

А теперь обратим свой взор на Старый Свет. Вас ничего не удивляет? Ну да, действительно – гробовое молчание Евросоюза. Практически полное отсутствие даже намеков, даже на какую-то скрытую поддержку того или иного кандидата. Ну ладно, пусть Европе давно наскучил Петр Порошенко, на чьи выступлениях все просто разбегаются из зала кто куда – в буфет, в туалет, покурить, лишь бы не слушать про «остаточне прощавай». Но ведь Европа не поддерживает ни Тимошенко, ни Гриценко, ни Садового, ни Зеленского – да вообще никого! Странно? Более чем!

План «Украина»

Есть несколько объяснений этому странному бойкоту украинских выборов со стороны Запада. Но, пожалуй, первым нужно отметить вот что: а как часто западные державы вообще вмешиваются в чужую политику? Не так чтобы. В наибольшей степени это делает Америка, сующая свой нос во все уголки земного шара, намного сдержанней ведет себя Европа. Причем, между собой они такого не позволяют, открытая поддержка кандидатов в президенты США со стороны ЕС или наоборот просто недопустима, там даже иностранных наблюдателей на выборах расценивают как оскорбление своей демократии.

Но вот что касается стран не из их «клуба», то иногда они просто гурьбой бросаются объявлять диктатором лидера какой-то страны, поддержать там оппозицию или даже восстание. Почему Европа и Америка так дружно поддерживала «цветные революции», «арабскую весну», почему они выступили простив «боливарианцев» в Венесуэле, фактически легализовав там парламентский переворот (как и в Украине 2014-го)? Очевидно, в этих случаях их общими интересами была срочная смена неугодной власти в этих странах.

Чем именно неугодной – это, как говорится, отдельная тема. Однако заметим, что после того как неугодная власть менялась (в ходе выборов или переворотов), интерес Запада к политическим процессам в этих странах резко пропадал. Первой про них забывала Европа, а затем поддержка США ограничивалась только предоставлением кредитов и направлением туда своих «советников». О них не вспоминали даже в том случае, если эта смена власти в итоге приводила к конфликту, войне, возникновению радикальных экстремистских движений. Получается, что Хусейн, Каддафи и Асад были для Запада большей проблемой, чем ИГИЛ? Но это тоже другая тема.

И вот теперь, после свержения в 2014 году неугодного Янковича, Запад постепенно забыл об Украине. Ему словно абсолютно всё равно, кого же теперь украинцы выберут себе президентом. Он даже не особенно расстроен тем, что в Украине провалились почти все «евроинтеграционные» реформы, что она стала намного дальше от благополучия и демократии, чем была до 2014 года. Многие называют это разочарованием: мол, Запад дважды возлагал на Украину свои надежды (после двух Майданов), но она их не оправдала. И считают, что именно это разочарование является основной причиной охлаждения интереса к Украине.

Вот, например, Порошенко за пять лет умудрился разочаровать всех: и американских «ястребов», жаждавших более активного украино-российского конфликта, и европейских «миротворцев», желающих его скорейшего завершения. Это же надо так имитировать войну и мирный процесс одновременно, чтобы столько лет ничего не делать ни в одном, ни в другом направлении! Борьба с коррупцией – не просто имитация, а какая-то циничная насмешка! Экономические «реформы», которые просто добили экономику страны. И дурацкие, бессмысленные политические эксперименты типа «декоммунизации» или «единой церкви». Достаточно причин для того, чтобы отказать Порошенко в своей поддержке на выборах.

Но почему же тогда поддержку не оказывают другим кандидатам? Значит ли это, что Запад не верит и в них – в воинственного Гриценко, в миротворца Зеленского, в богатый экономический опыт Тимошенко? Но тогда получается, что он просто поставил на Украине крест! И снова мы не находим ответа.

Однако дело в том, что это безразличие… обманчиво! Думается, что если новым главой Украины станет еще один неугодный Западу политик, то интерес к нам со стороны США и ЕС резко возрастет, и сюда снова направятся чиновники Госдепа и прибалтийские премьеры с полными торбами печенья. Из этого можно сделать другой вывод: Запад потерял к Украине интерес так же, как и к Ираку, Ливии или разбитой Югославии, или даже как к Грузии. Война у нас или мир, кризис или экономический рост, свобода или тирания – его это особо не заботит. И среди нынешних проходных кандидатов он не видит никого, кто бы изменил эту ситуацию, они все одинаковы в его глазах. Но вот если вдруг векторы внутренней и внешней политики Украины повернутся в невыгодном для Запада направлении – вот тогда, с большой вероятностью, будет и новый Майдан с печеньками, и кое-что похуже!

Баллада о кибер-Путине

Что же это за направление? Традиционно вся внешняя украинская политика сводится к двум векторам: прозападному и пророссийскому. И её недавняя история, в привычной нам интерпретации, утверждает, что оба Майдана были результатом стремления Запада развернуть Украину, так сказать, задницей к России. Вроде бы всё логично, аргументировано и неопровержимо. В конце концов, разве не под лозунгами евроинтеграции и против ЕЭП с ТС устраивали эти Майданы?

А нынешнее безразличие Запада к украинским выборам, разве это не результат уверенности в том, что она уже никогда не повернется обратно к Москве? Мол, чего теперь за неё переживать! Можно было бы даже сказать, что и в Кремле тоже махнули на Украину рукой. Пророссийского президента украинцы в обозримом будущем не выберут, а еще одна попытка затащить Украину в экономический и политический союз с Россией приведет даже не к третьему Майдану, а к вооруженному перевороту. Так что максимум, на что могут надеяться в Кремле – это более-менее нейтральный президент-миротворец, который может быть предложит полюбовно разрешить крымский вопрос.

На этом политологами и строится модель российских интересов на украинских выборах. Ну а уже «партии войны», основывающие свою политику на антироссийской риторике, добавляют к этому заявления о всемогущей руке Путина, которая старается эти выборы подтасовать или сорвать. В числе последних заявлений: устраивающий антипорошенковские акции «Нацкорпус» записали в «кремлевские титушки», а в СНБО тему «Свинарчукгейта» решили затмить страшилками про готовящиеся российские «кибератаки», которые якобы исказят результаты выборов в пользу «пророссийских» кандидатов. Впрочем, страшилки придумали не сами, а лишь пересказали американские, совершенно не думая при этом головой.

Истории о российских «кибератаках» вошли в тренд в конце 2016 года, во время президентских выборов США. Тогда некими хакерами были взломаны сайты Демократической партии США, и украденная там скандальная личная информация была опубликована – что якобы снизило рейтинг демократки Хилари Клинтон и способствовало успеху Трампа. После этого случая демократы подняли скандал, заявив, что хакеры были российскими или работали по заказу Кремля. Затем, развивая скандал, американские соратники Клинтон утверждали, что такие же «кибератаки» россияне устраивали перед выборами в Европе (Франция, Германия). Теперь вот подошла очередь Украины!

То есть «кибератаки» – это взлом и опубликование информации, которая может навредить тому или иному кандидату. Сведения о теневых экономических операциях и незадекларированном имуществе, пикантные фото, скандальная переписка и т.д. Возможно, что и ноги «Свинурчукгейта» тоже растут оттуда. Конечно, честному кандидату этих «кибератак» бояться не нужно, но кто из нас без греха? Однако на Банковой решили приправить эти страшилки перцем: теперь там утверждают, что российские хакеры будут атаковать серверы ЦИК с целью сорвать или сфальсифицировать подсчет голосов. Мол, если что не так, если будут раскрыты подтасовки – это всё «рука Кремля»!

Вот, собственно, и всё активное участие России в украинских выборах! Можно, конечно, притянуть сюда за уши еще объединение Рабиновича с Медведчуком и выдвижение кандидатом Юрия Бойко, однако его поддержка со стороны России носит скорее чисто символический характер. Возможно, подбросили немного денег на выборы – ото и всё! Даже в самой партии «За жизнь» признают, что не рассчитывают на победу, а рассматривают президентские выборы как трамплин для парламентских. Поэтому если Москва и играет на нынешних выборах, то ей придется надеяться, максиму, на победу Зеленского. Но что она даст?

После краха двух попыток втягивания Украины в российские геополитические проекты, кажется, что интерес Москвы к ней совсем пропал. И аннексия Крыма была таким себе хлопком двери, означавшим завершение российской политики «братства». Что теперь России нужно от Украины? Обычно называют три вещи: постепенная уступка Крыма, нейтральная политика в отношении России и внеблоковый статус без всяких американских баз ПРО в Сумской и Черниговской областях. Реализация Минского мира с «поправками» Москвы это само собою, этого в Кремле сразу ждут от нового украинского президента.

Исходя из этих российских интересов в Украине, делают простые выводы: сейчас в Москве заинтересованы в победе умеренного сговорчивого кандидата от «партии мира», и очень сильно не хотят победы кого-то из «партии войны». Ну и дальше называют фамилии Зеленского – который якобы «сдаст» Украину Путину, и Порошенко с Гриценко – которые якобы сильно мешают Кремлю. Что ж, звучит складно, вот только такие тезисы озвучивают как раз на Банковой, когда агитируют за Петра Алексеевича. Ну а в реальности?

В реальности Порошенко – не самый худший для России украинский президент. Он так и не пытался освободить Крым, он почти продул АТО в 2014-м и потом четыре года имитировал «войну с агрессором», он грозит Москве кулачком издалека и только на словах, при нем Украина вред ли обзаведется мощными вооруженными силами и вступит в НАТО. А Тимошенко с Гриценко мало чем от него отличаются. Так зачем России «тянуть» на этих выборах своих кандидатов, если при любом раскладе для неё хуже не будет?

Однако хуже может быть на следующих выборах. Глядишь, эпоха аферистов и клоунов минет, появятся серьезные решительные политики. Если в Кремле не дураки, то поймут, что вопрос Крыма не будет решен до тех пор, пока… существует Украина. А вот если с ней что-то случиться, то подавать иски по Крыму будет уже некому. И не только по Крыму.

Задумаемся: если мы ошибались в намерениях Запада относительно Украины, то возможно мы ошибались и в намерениях России? Причем, мы до сих пор не знаем истинную причину всех этих свержений «антидемократических режимов», не все из которых были пророссийскими. Очень вероятно, что дело было вовсе не в пророссийском векторе Януковича, а в том, что Украина и Россия вместе участвовали бы в чем-то таком, что серьезно угрожало бы интересам Запада – или интересам тех, кто «рулит» Западом, открыто или из-за кулис. Но это уже увлекательная тема о всемирно заговоре!

Так вот, если Западу удается всё это время делать вид, что он хочет удержать Украину в орбите «европейского мира», вырвав её из-под влияния России, то и Москва тоже всё это время делает вид, притворяясь, что ей нужно от Украины безблоковость, нейтралитет и отказ от Крыма. А что же ей нужно на самом деле? Возможно, чтобы Украины просто не стало – и это решило бы все вопросы одним махом. И в таком случае, Москве нужна вовсе не победа на выборах «пророссийского» или нейтрального кандидата, ей нужно, чтобы эти выборы стали детонатором большого взрыва.

Источник: from-ua

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